摘要：Earthquakes endanger lives and properties and trigger widespread online public opinion. If the government fails to implement emergency measures quickly, the risks associated with this online public opinion may escalate and present significant challenges in managing it. To solve this issue, this paper investigates the M5.7 earthquake in Yibin, China, as a case study, drawing data from China's Sina Weibo. It also develops an evolutionary model of earthquake online public opinion using the life cycle theory of public opinion dissemination, public opinion crisis management theory, and system dynamics methods. This study chooses a system dynamic model because it can capture overall trends and feedback cycles. This approach provides a comprehensive view of the evolution of the whole system's behavior and public opinion during the crisis. This model analyzes the evolution of the online public opinion of the earthquake from the perspective of the earthquake, netizens (social media users), media, and government. This study explores the differences between online public opinion by adjusting the size of different variables in the model. This provides an entry point for better control of the development and communication of earthquake online public opinion. The findings indicate that, following the earthquake, the media exerted the most significant influence on public opinion, mainly through media participation, diffusion, and impact, demonstrating a significantly positive correlation with the magnitude of public opinion. Moreover, the simulation revealed that the government is leading in preventing and controlling online public opinion. This study presents the following innovations: (1) It builds a comprehensive online public opinion model for earthquakes, which provides insights for studying online public opinion regarding other sudden natural disasters. (2) It employs system dynamics to simulate earthquake online public opinion, providing countermeasures and recommendations for the government to manage and regulate this discourse effectively.

该文于2024年12月发表于SSCI/AHCI中科院分区小类1区期刊《Humanities and Social Sciences Communications》。该研究获得湖北高校省级教学研究项目“新文科建设视阈下中国行政管理学科复合型人才培养模式创新研究”（2022014）和湖北省市场监管局标准化处委托项目“湖北省政府管理标准化体系优化研究”（1203/250000471）资助。论文链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-04162-3。